IMARCS Foundation

Module 1

How to Think

How to work through any problem: start with the outcome and plan back from it, observe before you conclude, tell symptoms from causes, check the facts, rule causes out, change one thing at a time, put first things first, and check your fix worked.

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Key terms for this module

Read these first. Every one of them comes up in the sections below.

Outcome What has to be true when you're done. Tasks are the steps toward it.
Output What a task produces: a sent email, a ticked box, an empty box. Easy to count, and not the same as the outcome.
Pre-mortem Imagining that a job has already gone wrong, and listing why, before you start.
If-then plan Deciding in advance what you'll do if a problem happens: "If this happens, then I will do that."
Observation Something you can see, hear, smell or measure. A fact.
Conclusion What you think an observation means. A guess until it's checked.
Symptom What you notice when something is wrong.
Cause Why it's happening.
Process of elimination Listing every possible cause and ruling them out with evidence until one is left.
Correlation Two things changing together. Not proof that one causes the other.
Triage Deciding what to deal with first: safety, then stopping damage, then the cause, then clean-up.
Anecdote One person's story. Not the same as evidence.
Evidence Something you saw, measured or tested that supports or rules out a cause.

1. Why thinking beats memorizing

Rules and checklists are useful, but nobody can write a rule for every situation. Sooner or later you'll face something nobody planned for. When that happens, what saves the day is a person who can think it through.

The thinking loop 1. Observe what do I actually see? 2. Check the facts is that really true? 3. List causes everything it could be 4. Rule them out with evidence 5. Act safest useful step first 6. Check did it work? Not fixed? Go back to step 1 with what you just learned.

This module isn't about aquariums. It's about how to think through any problem: a car that won't start, a phone that won't charge, a leak under the sink. Every later module uses the same method, so learn it here with everyday examples first.

The method is a loop. Observe what's really happening. Check the facts before you believe them. List every cause it could be. Rule causes out with evidence. Act, starting with the safest useful step. Then check whether it worked. If it didn't, go round again with what you've learned.

The goal isn't to remember the answer. It's to be able to work out the answer when nobody has told you.

If Then
Something happens that no rule covers Use the loop: observe, check, list, rule out, act, check.
Your fix doesn't work Go back round the loop. You've learned something.

Check your understanding

Your workplace has a checklist for when the power goes out. Today the power is on, but one room has no lights and the others are fine. The checklist doesn't cover this. What do you do?

Use the loop. Observe: only one room, lights only, or sockets too? Check: is the switch on, are the bulbs fine? List causes: bulb, switch, a tripped breaker for that room. Rule them out one by one. Then act, and check.

Key point Observe, check the facts, list causes, rule them out, act, check.

2. Start with the outcome

Before you start any task, ask what the end result has to be. Not the steps: the outcome. This one habit changes how well every other job gets done.

Start with the outcome Outcome a healthy fish living in its permanent home Every step in between checking, acclimating, quarantine A fish arrives in a box work back from it only there to get there

An outcome is what has to be true when you're done. A task is something you do on the way. What a task produces, a sent email, a ticked box, a cooked meal, is its output. Outputs are easy to see and count. Outcomes are what the work was for.

"Deliver the parcel" is a task. A parcel marked "delivered" is an output. "The right person has the parcel, undamaged, before the deadline" is the outcome. A driver who leaves the box out in the rain has done the task and produced the output, and missed the outcome.

New fish arrive in a box. There's a lot to do: open the box, check the fish, acclimate them, quarantine them. None of those is the outcome. The outcome is a healthy fish living in its permanent home. Every step in between is there only to get it there.

Task Output Outcome
Deliver the parcel Marked "delivered" The right person has it, undamaged, on time
Feed the clownfish Food went in at 9:00 Every fish ate
Send the email It's in the sent folder The right person read it and can act on it
Train a new coworker "Trained" ticked on the list They can do it alone, correctly
Hang a heavy painting A painting on a hook It stays up safely, where it's wanted, and the wall isn't damaged
Unpack the new fish An empty box A healthy fish living in its permanent home
Take the course tests A pass on each test You can do the work when nobody is telling you how

Three questions tell an outcome from a task or an output:

  • Does doing the task make it true by itself? Then it's a task or an output. Ticking "fed" doesn't make every fish eat.
  • Would the person or animal the work is for notice it? A fish notices whether it's healthy. It doesn't notice whether the log was filled in.
  • Would they still want it if there were another way to get it? Nobody wants a taxi ride for its own sake. They want to get home. Getting home is the outcome.

Look at the parcel and the new fish side by side. Different jobs, same shape: a list of tasks, outputs that are easy to tick off, and an end result that only some of those tasks protect. Whenever you meet a new job, look for that shape.

The parcel The new fish
The tasks Collect it, drive there, hand it over Open the box, check, acclimate, quarantine
Easy to tick off Marked "delivered" The box is empty
The outcome The right person has it, undamaged, on time A healthy fish living in its permanent home
Done, but missed Left out in the rain Unpacked, but the fish is sick

People who only know the task do the task, even when it has stopped helping. People who know the outcome can tell when a step isn't working, and what to do instead. The next three sections show how.

Task or outcome drill: on the course website this is an interactive drill. Sort statements from everyday life and the fish room into tasks, outputs and outcomes, and see why each one belongs where it does.

If Then
You're handed a task Ask what outcome it's for before you start.
Doing the task makes it true by itself It's a task or an output, not the outcome.
Every task is done Check the outcome is true, not just the list.

Check your understanding

Your manager is away for two weeks and asks you to water the office plants every day. What's the outcome, and what does knowing it change?

The outcome is healthy plants when the manager gets back, not "watered every day". So you look at each plant: soil that's still wet doesn't need water yet. Watering on schedule until the roots rot does the task and misses the outcome.

Key point Know the outcome first. Tasks and outputs are only steps toward it.

3. Ask what it's for

The first outcome you name is often just a bigger task. Keep asking what it's for until you reach the end result the job exists for.

Ask what it is for Outcome the animals stay healthy So the water stays clean So the waste leaves before it rots Task: change the filter sock what's it for? what's it for? what's it for? keep asking

Take a task and ask, "What's this for?" Then ask it again about the answer. Change the filter sock. What's that for? So the waste leaves the system before it rots. What's that for? So the water stays clean. What's that for? So the animals stay healthy. Now you've reached the outcome: the reason the job exists.

Stop when the answer is the end result itself. It's usually about a person or an animal being well, safe or able to do something. If asking once more only gets you "because that's good", you're there.

Climbing up the ladder shows you why each step matters. Climbing back down from the outcome shows you other ways to get there. If the sock is already full on Tuesday, the outcome says change it now, even though the schedule says Thursday.

An outcome also includes what must not happen on the way. Moving a heavy cabinet: the cabinet in its new place, nobody hurt and nothing broken. New fish: a healthy fish in its permanent home, without bringing disease or pests to the animals already there (Module 2). A result that breaks one of these isn't the outcome, however fast it came.

Then say the outcome so anyone could check it. A vague outcome can't be checked, so nobody can tell whether it's been reached.

Vague Clear enough to check
Look after the plants The plants are healthy when the manager is back in two weeks
Help the new coworker They can do the morning check alone, correctly, by Friday
Sort out the dinner Everyone is fed, and the friend who can't eat nuts eats safely
Deal with the new fish A healthy fish in its permanent home, nothing brought in that harms the others
Put the painting up The painting stays up safely where it's wanted, nobody hurt, the wall not damaged
If Then
The outcome you named comes true just by doing a task Ask "what's it for?" again.
You're not sure when to stop asking Stop at the end result: someone or something well, safe or able.
A fast result hurts someone or breaks something It isn't the outcome. Include what must not happen.
Nobody could check the outcome Say it so anyone could check it.

Check your understanding

Your task is "wipe down the counters after work". Climb the ladder: what's it for, and what's the outcome?

So nothing is left behind that spreads germs or gets into the next job. So the counter is clean and safe for whoever uses it next. That's the outcome: a clean, safe counter for the next person, not "wiped". Wiping with a dirty cloth does the task and misses the outcome.

Key point Keep asking what it's for. Include what must not happen.

4. Work backward, and plan for what can go wrong

Once you know the outcome, plan from the end back to now. Then imagine it has already gone wrong, and plan for that too.

Plan from the end back to now 1. The outcome everyone fed, safe and glad they came 2. How will I know? everyone ate, and nobody got sick 3. Just before that food ready that everyone can eat ! 4. So the first step is ask who's coming and what each can eat plan this way

Planning forward starts with "what do I do first?" and often gets the first step wrong. Planning backward starts at the outcome and asks, again and again, "what has to be true just before this?" You're having friends over for dinner. The outcome: everyone fed, safe and glad they came. Just before that, the food is ready and safe for everyone, including the friend who can't eat nuts. Before that, you know who's coming and what each person can eat. So the first step is asking, not cooking.

Decide how you'll know the outcome is true before you start. Every fish ate: you'll watch each one at feeding. The parcel arrived: the person confirms they have it. If you can't say how you'd know, the outcome isn't clear enough yet. The section on acting and checking comes back to this: decide what "fixed" looks like, and when you'll check.

A pre-mortem ! Before you start, say: "It's over, and it went wrong." ! List every reason why each person on their own, no arguing yet Turn the worst into if-then plans "If this happens, then I will do that."

Then imagine it has already failed. Picture the end of the job and tell yourself it went wrong: the new fish died, your friend never got home, the cabinet is broken. Now list every reason it could have happened. This is called a pre-mortem. Imagining that the failure has already happened helps people find more of the real reasons than asking "what might go wrong?" Research has found it raises people's ability to identify the right reasons by 30%. It also makes it easier to say a worry out loud, because the exercise asks for it.

Turn the worst reasons into if-then plans: "If this happens, then I will do that." Deciding the response in advance makes people much more likely to follow through when the moment comes, because nobody has to work out what to do under pressure.

In the pre-mortem The if-then plan
"The flight was late and we missed each other." If the flight is late, then I check the new time and tell my friend where I'll be.
"Nobody was free to help, so I moved it alone and dropped it." If nobody is free to help, then I don't move it alone; I set a time when someone is.
"The quarantine system wasn't ready when the fish arrived." If it isn't ready the day before, then I get help to set it up before the box comes.
"The dessert had nuts in it." If a label says "may contain nuts", then it doesn't go near my friend.

Before you start, list everything the outcome depends on. A person who only knows the task thinks of a nail and a hammer. A person who knows the outcome thinks of the weight, the wall, what's behind it, the height, the spacing, the level and everything around it. Most jobs that go wrong go wrong because of something nobody thought of.

A worked example: hanging a heavy painting. Here's the whole method on one job, from start to finish.

Step Hanging a heavy painting
The outcome The painting stays up safely, straight, at the right height and in the right place. Nobody gets hurt, and the wall isn't damaged. "A hook in the wall" is only a task.
Everything it depends on How heavy it is. What the wall is made of at that spot. Anchors or a stud that can hold the weight. Wires and pipes behind the wall. The height people will look at it from. The distance to each side wall, and the space to the ceiling and the floor. Level. Doors, light switches and furniture nearby. Where the wire or hooks sit on the back of the frame.
How will I know? It hangs straight, it doesn't move when you test it gently by hand, and it's still up a week later.
Just before that A hook and fixing that can hold more than the painting weighs, in something that can hold it.
Before that Know how heavy the painting is, and what the wall is made of at that spot.
So the first step is Weigh the painting and check the wall. Not grabbing a nail and a hammer.
The pre-mortem "It fell off the wall. Why?" The screw pulled out of the drywall. The hook was rated for less than the painting weighs. The drill hit a pipe or a wire.
The if-then plans If the spot is plain drywall, then use anchors rated for the weight, or fix into a stud. If the hook's rating is below the weight, then get a stronger one. If you're about to drill, then check for wires and pipes behind that spot first.
On the way There's no stud where it needs to hang, and the anchors you have are too weak. The plan changes, the outcome doesn't: get the right anchors, or choose a spot that can hold it.
Check the outcome Not "the painting is up". It's straight, at the height and place you planned, firm when you test it gently, and still up a week later.
If Then
You're planning a job Start at the outcome and ask what has to be true just before it.
You can't say how you'd know it worked Make the outcome clearer first.
You're about to start Imagine it already went wrong, and list why.
You found a likely problem Make an if-then plan for it now.

Check your understanding

You're moving a heavy cabinet to another room tomorrow. Do a quick pre-mortem, then turn one reason into an if-then plan.

It's tomorrow evening and it went wrong. Why? Someone tripped on a cord in the doorway. Nobody was free to help. It didn't fit through the door. If-then: if nobody is free to help, then I don't move it alone; I set a time when someone is.

Key point Plan from the end back to now, then plan for the failures.

5. The outcome rules the steps

Plans, checklists and numbers are tools for reaching the outcome. When they stop helping, the outcome tells you what to do.

The plan changes, the outcome does not Start Road closed Another way Outcome The plan changes. The outcome doesn't.

No plan survives everything. A road is closed. A part is out of stock. The quarantine system isn't ready. A person who only knows the plan stops, or carries on with a plan that no longer works. A person who knows the outcome finds another way to reach it. That's why the best instructions say what a job is for, not just the steps: knowing the purpose lets people act sensibly when things don't go as planned.

Watch for the step becoming the goal. A checklist, a schedule or a log starts as a way to reach an outcome. Over time, people start treating it as the outcome: the box gets ticked whether or not the fish ate. Numbers do the same. A large bank once judged its staff by how many accounts each customer had. Staff opened millions of accounts that customers never asked for. The number went up, and the customers, the reason for the number, were harmed. When a number goes the right way, ask whether the outcome did too.

THE OUTCOME ISN'T A REASON TO SKIP A RULE. Safety rules and the rules that protect the other animals are part of the outcome. When a step seems to work against the outcome, say so and explain why. If it's urgent and you can't ask anyone, do what protects the outcome and the people and animals around it, then report what you did and why.

Last, check the outcome, not the task list. A task can be finished and the outcome still missed. The box was unpacked, but the fish is sick. The email was sent, but to the wrong person. The flight was met, but at the wrong terminal, and your friend took a taxi. The job is done when the outcome is true.

Outcome first drill: on the course website this is an interactive drill. Find the outcome a task is for, work backward from it, deal with what goes wrong on the way, and check the outcome.

If Then
The plan stops working Find another way to the same outcome.
A number goes the right way Check the outcome went the right way too.
A step seems to work against the outcome Say so and explain why. Safety and biosecurity rules stay.
Every task is done The job is done when the outcome is true.

Check your understanding

You're told to post an important contract by Friday. On Thursday the post office is closed for a holiday. What does the outcome tell you?

The outcome is the right person having the contract on time, not "posted". Find another way to get it there on time, such as a courier or taking it yourself, and tell them the plan.

Key point The plan can change. The outcome doesn't.

6. Observe before you conclude

Most mistakes start in the first few seconds: someone sees something, jumps to a conclusion, and acts on the conclusion instead of what they saw.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
Facts and guesses What you SEE: a fact "There's water on the kitchen floor." Anyone looking would agree. ! What you THINK it means "The dishwasher is leaking." A guess. It might be wrong. Write down what you see. Treat what you think as a guess until you've checked it.

An observation is what you can see, hear, smell or measure: "there's water on the floor next to the dishwasher." A conclusion is what you think it means: "the dishwasher is leaking." Conclusions feel like facts, but they're guesses until you check them.

Good observers look at the whole picture, not just the first thing that catches their eye. Where exactly is the water? How much? Is it clean or dirty? Is it still coming? When did it start? Each detail rules some causes in and others out.

Attention to detail is a skill, not a personality type. It means reading the whole label, noticing the unit (grams or kilograms?), and noticing what's different from yesterday. Small details are often the whole answer.

If Then
You see something and immediately know "what it is" That's a guess. Write down what you actually see first.
You only look at the first thing you notice You miss the details that point to the cause.
You skip the unit on a label Grams and kilograms are a thousand times apart.

Check your understanding

A coworker says, "The fridge is broken, the milk went bad." What would you want to observe before you agree?

Is the fridge cold inside? Is it running? Is the door closing properly? What's the date on the milk? "The milk went bad" is an observation. "The fridge is broken" is a guess.

Key point Facts first. Guesses are guesses until they're checked.

7. A symptom isn't a cause

A symptom is what you notice. A cause is why it's happening. Fixing a symptom makes the problem look better for a while. Fixing the cause makes it go away.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
One symptom, many possible causes ! Symptom water on the floor Spilled drink happened once Dishwasher hose drips when it runs Leaking pipe drips all the time Rain at a window only when it rains It could be any of these: ! Mopping only treats the symptom. The water comes back unless you find the cause.

Mopping the floor fixes the symptom. If the cause is a dripping pipe, the water is back tomorrow. Taking a painkiller for a toothache helps today, but the tooth still needs a dentist. Covering a warning light on a car dashboard doesn't fix the engine.

One symptom can have many causes, and one cause can make many symptoms. So whenever you fix a symptom, ask: what caused this, and is it still happening?

Sometimes you have to treat the symptom first because it's dangerous right now: you mop up water near a power socket before you go looking for the leak. That's fine. Just don't stop there.

If Then
You fix the symptom It looks better for now. It comes back if the cause is still there.
The symptom is dangerous right now Deal with it first, then go find the cause.

Check your understanding

Every morning there's a small puddle under the car. Someone puts a tray under it. Has the problem been solved?

No. The tray catches the symptom. Something is still leaking, and the cause (and what's leaking) still needs finding.

Key point Always ask: what caused this, and is it still happening?

8. Check the facts before you act

Before you act on a number, a report or a warning, make sure it's true. Tools give wrong readings, people misremember, and messages get passed on wrong.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
Check the facts before you act ! The reading says: fever of 41 C Before you panic, check: right tool? used right? read right? fits what you see? What really happened the thermometer was just in hot tea; real temperature: normal A wrong number makes you fix the wrong thing. Check the number before you act on it.

Ask three questions about any fact you're about to act on. Where did it come from? (Did you see it, or did someone tell you?) Could the tool or the person be wrong? (Was the thermometer just in hot tea? Was the scale set to zero?) Does it fit everything else you can see? (A "fever" in a child who's running around happily doesn't fit.)

If a fact doesn't fit, check it again before you do anything. A careful second look costs a minute. Acting on a wrong fact can cost much more.

CHECK BEFORE YOU ACT. A number or report that doesn't make sense gets checked before anyone acts on it. Never "fix" something based on one strange reading.
If Then
A reading doesn't fit what you can see Check the reading, the tool and how it was used.
Someone passes on a message Find out if they saw it, or heard it from someone else.
You act on one strange number You may "fix" something that wasn't broken.

Check your understanding

The bathroom scale says you gained 6 kg overnight. What do you check before you believe it?

Is the scale on a flat, hard floor? Was it zeroed? Does it read the same twice? Does a known weight read right? A change that big overnight almost certainly isn't real.

Key point Check the number before you act on it.

9. List the causes, then rule them out

Don't bet on the first idea that comes to mind. List everything that could cause what you're seeing, then test the list until only one cause is left.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
Process of elimination Phone won't charge. Wall socket a lamp works: OK Charger block charges another phone: OK ! Cable a new cable charges it: FAULT Phone charges with new cable: OK Test each link on its own. Whatever fails its own test is the cause.

This is called process of elimination. A phone won't charge. It could be the socket, the charger block, the cable or the phone. Test each one on its own: plug a lamp into the socket, try the charger with another phone, try a different cable. The part that fails its own test is the cause.

Order your checks sensibly. Check the most dangerous causes first (a burning smell from the charger comes before anything else), then the most likely ones, then the quickest and cheapest to check. Cross each one off only when you have evidence, not because it "probably isn't that".

Keep track of what you've ruled out and how. Write it down. The next person, or you tomorrow, shouldn't have to check it all again.

If Then
You bet on the first idea You may chase the wrong cause for hours.
You cross off a cause because it "probably isn't that" It might be. Rule it out with evidence.
You test each part on its own The one that fails its own test is the cause.

Check your understanding

A desk lamp won't turn on. List the causes, and how you'd rule each one out.

The socket (plug something else in), the plug or fuse, the cable (look for damage), the switch, the bulb (try a bulb that works). Check anything that smells of burning first, then the quickest: the bulb and the socket.

Key point Dangerous first, then likely, then quick and cheap. Evidence, not hunches.

10. What changed?

Things that have worked for months don't usually break for no reason. When a problem starts, the most useful question is: what changed just before it started?

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
What changed? Mon All normal Tue Change: new cleaning spray Wed Problem starts: the cat is sneezing Thu Problem: still sneezing When a problem starts, ask first: what changed just before it?

A new cleaning product, a different brand of food, a moved piece of furniture, a new person doing a job, a power cut, a hot day. Any change just before a problem is a suspect. Look back a day, a week, sometimes longer, and list every change you can find.

A change is a suspect, not a conviction. The cat may have caught a cold that happens to line up with the new spray. Test it: stop using the spray. If the sneezing stops, and comes back if the spray comes back, you've found your cause.

If Then
A problem starts suddenly Look for what changed just before it.
You find a change It's a suspect. Test it before you blame it.

Check your understanding

A houseplant that's been healthy for a year starts dropping leaves this week. What's the first question you ask?

What changed? Was it moved? A new window open? Heating switched on? A different person watering it? Then test the most likely change.

Key point First question: what changed?

11. Together isn't the same as cause

Two things happening together doesn't prove one causes the other. This is one of the most common thinking mistakes there is.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
Together isn't the same as cause Months: winter to summer Ice cream sales Sunburns ! They rise together. Does ice cream cause sunburn? No. Hot sunny weather causes both.

When two things rise and fall together, there are several possibilities. A causes B. B causes A. Something else causes both. Or it's coincidence. Ice cream sales and sunburns rise together because hot sunny weather causes both, not because ice cream burns your skin.

Before you decide one thing caused another, ask: could something else explain both? And can you test it? If removing the suspected cause removes the effect, and bringing it back brings the effect back, you have much stronger evidence.

If Then
Two things happen together One may cause the other, or something else may cause both.
Removing a suspected cause removes the effect That's much stronger evidence.

Check your understanding

Every time Tanaka-san is on shift, the printer jams more. Is Tanaka-san causing the jams?

Maybe, but not proven. Maybe Tanaka-san's shift is the busiest, or the same day the paper delivery comes. Look at what else is different on those shifts, and test it.

Key point Ask: could something else explain both?

12. Change one thing at a time

If you change three things and the problem goes away, you don't know which one fixed it. If it gets worse, you don't know which one broke it.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check

When something isn't working and there's no emergency, change one thing, wait long enough to see the effect, and check. Then decide the next step. It feels slower, but it's faster in the end, because you learn something from every step.

Overreacting makes it worse just right Big turns, no waiting: too hot, too cold, too hot Small turn, wait, check: settles on just right

Overreacting is the other half of this. Someone turns the shower to hot, doesn't wait, turns it far to cold, doesn't wait, and swings back and forth. Every system takes time to respond. Make a small change, wait, check, then adjust. Doing too much, too often, or doing things that cancel each other out usually makes problems worse.

The exception is an emergency. If something is dangerous right now, do what makes it safe, even if that means doing several things at once. Then go back to one change at a time.

If Then
You change three things at once You can't tell which one helped or hurt.
You make big changes without waiting You overshoot, back and forth, like the shower.
It's an emergency Make it safe first, even if that takes several actions.

Check your understanding

A soup tastes bland. Someone adds salt, pepper, lemon and soy sauce at once. Now it's too sour. What went wrong, and what should they have done?

They changed four things at once and can't tell which made it sour. Add one thing a little at a time, taste, then decide the next.

Key point Small change, wait, check, then decide.

13. Put first things first

When several things are wrong at once, the order you deal with them matters. Safety first, then stop the damage, then fix the cause, then clean up.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
What to do first ! First: danger to life or safety smoke, electricity near water, someone hurt ! Then: stop it getting worse turn off the water before you mop Then: find and fix the cause the loose hose under the sink Last: clean up mop the floor, dry the cupboard

This is called triage. A pipe bursts under the sink and water is spreading toward a power strip. First make it safe: switch off the power at the wall if you can do it safely. Then stop the damage: turn off the water. Then find the cause. The mopping comes last.

When you're not sure what to do first, ask: what happens if I leave this for ten minutes? Anything that gets dangerous or much worse in ten minutes comes first.

If Then
Water is spreading toward electricity Safety first: make the electricity safe.
Damage is still happening Stop it before you fix or clean.
You're not sure what's urgent Ask what happens if you leave it ten minutes.

Check your understanding

You walk into a room. A heater is smoking, the floor is wet, and a coworker's cut their hand on broken glass. What order do you deal with these in?

Safety first: switch off the heater at the wall if you safely can, and make sure your coworker is OK and away from the glass and water. Then stop more damage. Then causes. Clean-up last.

Key point Safety, stop the damage, fix the cause, clean up.

14. Act, then check that it worked

Doing something isn't the same as fixing something. Every action needs a check: did it actually work?

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
Every action gets a check Before you act, decide: what will "fixed" look like? when will I check? Act Check at the time you set Worked write down the cause and the fix ! Didn't work one cause ruled out: go round again

Before you act, decide two things. What will tell me it worked? (The floor stays dry. The phone shows it's charging.) When will I check? (In an hour. Tomorrow morning.) Then actually check, at that time.

If it worked, write down what the problem was, what caused it, and what fixed it. If it didn't, that's useful too: you've ruled something out. Go back round the loop with that new fact.

Some fixes come with their own risks. Pick the step that helps without being able to make things worse, when there's one. Turning off a dripping tap can't hurt. Taking apart the plumbing could.

If Then
You act without deciding how to check You won't know if it worked.
It didn't work You've ruled something out. Go round again.

Check your understanding

You tighten a dripping tap. How do you know it's fixed?

Decide in advance: a dry sink after an hour, checked at a set time. Then actually check. If it's still dripping, the washer may be the cause, not how tight it was.

Key point Decide what "fixed" looks like and when you'll check. Then check.

15. Judging claims and advice

You'll hear a lot of advice: from coworkers, the internet, product labels and people who "always do it this way". Some of it's right. Some of it isn't. You need a way to tell the difference.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
How much should you trust it? Repeated, measured results many tests: trust it more Your own small test tried small and checked ! Seller's claim a label or advert: be careful ! Anecdote "worked for me": be careful ! Rumor "someone said": check first stronger
Ask Why it matters
Who's saying it, and how do they know? Did they test it, or did they hear it from someone else?
Is it one story, or many results? One person's good experience is an anecdote. It may have been luck or something else entirely.
Are they selling something? A product label wants you to buy the product. That doesn't make it wrong, but check it.
Does it fit what you already know works? A claim that breaks everything you've learned needs much stronger evidence.
Can you test it safely and small? Try a change on a small scale first, and check the result.

"We've always done it this way" isn't a reason. It may be a good way, but you should know why it's done that way. If nobody knows why, find out.

If Then
Someone says "it worked for me" That's one story. It might have been something else.
The claim is on a product label The seller wants a sale. Check it.
"We've always done it this way" Find out why.

Check your understanding

A coworker says a new cleaning product "kills everything and is totally safe". How would you judge that?

Who says so and how do they know? Is it the label (a seller), or a test? What does the safety sheet say? Try it small first, and check what happens.

Key point Ask how they know, and test small.

16. Know your limits, and report clearly

Thinking for yourself doesn't mean doing everything alone. A good problem solver knows when something is beyond them, and hands it over with everything the next person needs.

  1. 1. Observe
  2. 2. Check the facts
  3. 3. List causes
  4. 4. Rule them out
  5. 5. Act
  6. 6. Check
A report anyone can act on 1. What I saw facts, numbers, times "Floor wet at 9:00, about a cup, clean water." 2. What I checked including what I ruled out "Hose dry. Pipe behind it dripping slowly." 3. What I did every action "Closed the valve, put a towel down." 4. What happened after the result of the check "Still dry at 9:30."

Get help when the problem is dangerous and you don't know how to make it safe, when you've run out of causes to check, or when the next step could cause serious damage if you're wrong. Asking early is better than guessing late.

When you report a problem, say: what you saw (facts, with numbers and times), what you checked and what you ruled out, what you did, and what happened after. "The floor by the dishwasher was wet at 9:00, about a cup of clean water. The hose is dry. There's a slow drip from the pipe behind it. I turned off the valve and put a towel down. Still dry at 9:30." That report lets anyone carry on where you stopped.

Write things down. A problem you solved and recorded only has to be solved once.

Work the case drill: on the course website this is an interactive drill. Work everyday problems step by step through the thinking loop, and see which thinking trap each wrong move falls into.

If Then
The next step could cause serious damage if you're wrong Get help before you take it.
You report "it's broken" Nobody can act on that. Say what you saw, checked and did.

Check your understanding

Turn this report into a useful one: "The water heater's acting weird."

What did you see (no hot water since 7:00, a clicking sound, a red light)? What did you check (power is on, breaker not tripped)? What did you do (nothing yet, or reset it once)? What happened after?

Key point Report what you saw, checked, did, and what happened after.

17. What you notice, and what to do

You're handed a task Ask what outcome it's for. Keep asking until you reach the end result.
You're planning a job Work back from the outcome, then imagine it failed and plan for that.
The plan stops working Find another way to the same outcome. Rules that keep people and animals safe stay.
You're sure you know what's wrong straight away Slow down. Write down what you actually see.
A number or report doesn't fit Check it before acting.
You fixed it, but it came back You fixed a symptom. Find the cause.
You don't know where to start List every possible cause. Check dangerous, then likely, then quick.
A problem started suddenly Ask what changed just before it.
Two things seem connected Ask if something else explains both. Test it.
You're tempted to change several things Change one, wait, check.
Several things are wrong at once Safety, stop the damage, fix the cause, clean up.
You've acted Check it worked, at a time you decided in advance.
You're out of ideas, or the next step is risky Get help, and report what you saw, checked and did.

Module 1 test

30 questions. Pass with 27 or more. Opens after you pass every section check in this module. Sign in to start.

Sources

  1. Backward design (Washington State University Teaching Toolkit)
  2. Outcomes vs. outputs: what's the difference and why does it matter? (Product Talk)
  3. Performing a project premortem (Harvard Business Review)
  4. Intent (military) (Wikipedia)
  5. Implementation intentions (National Cancer Institute)
  6. Analogical learning in negotiation teams: comparing cases promotes learning and transfer (Academy of Management Learning and Education)
  7. Worked and faded examples (MIT Open Learning)
  8. Surrogation (Wikipedia)
  9. Goal displacement in Social Theory and Social Structure (Rogers State University)
  10. Correlation vs causation: key differences with examples (Editage)
  11. Seven troubleshooting principles for any occasion (ITPro Today)